EVs are expected to have a permanent place in the vehicle landscape. According to a new report from Guidehouse Research, battery EVs (BEVs) are estimated to make up 15% of LDV sales globally in 2024, and Guidehouse Research expects that number to grow substantially in the coming decade. By 2033, pure BEVs are expected to account for 53% of global LDV sales, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0%. At the same time, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to decline from nearly 65% of global sales in 2024 to just under 20% in 2033 at a CAGR of -11.7%.
"The LDV electrification market can be seen as an important lens on technology development and decarbonization worldwide," says Jake Foose, research analyst with Guidehouse Research. "While global efforts to decarbonize in the wake of the Paris Agreement have experienced some setbacks and slow starts, transportation electrification has been continuously moving forward. The advantages of full vehicle electrification are numerous, and the goal for many governments is to move entirely to BEVs."
Electrification options have diversified, as drivers are not yet ready for the full transition. Lack of charging infrastructure is holding back BEV deployment in many markets. In some regions, backlash against decarbonization has led to uncertainty in the transportation market, with some investors wary of committing significant capital. OEMs are revising their roadmaps to add more vehicle options and walking back some of their earlier decarbonization commitments. Yet even in the wake of the 2024 US presidential election, the EV industry is expected to continue to grow. As the wave of decarbonization grows stronger, the push for more efficient vehicles has reached a tipping point, and Guidehouse Research expects it to only accelerate.
The report, Light Duty Vehicle Electrification, serves as the most recent update of Guidehouse Research' outlook for the global LDV market. It provides an analysis of global LDV sales for the next decade, with a specific focus on vehicle electrification. It examines the effect of various market drivers, including government incentives and lower cost per mile, on the markets for six vehicle classifications: ICE vehicles, BEVs, PHEVs, HEVs, EREVs, and FCVs. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Research website.
About Guidehouse Research:
Guidehouse Research, the dedicated market intelligence arm of Guidehouse, provides research, data, and benchmarking services for today's rapidly changing and highly regulated industries. Our insights are built on in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research, and demand assessment, paired with a deep examination of technology trends, to provide a comprehensive view of emerging resilient infrastructure systems.
About Guidehouse:
Guidehouse is a global AI-led professional services firm delivering advisory, technology, and managed services to the commercial and government sectors. With an integrated business technology approach, Guidehouse drives efficiency and resilience in the healthcare, financial services, energy, infrastructure, and national security markets. Built to help clients across industries outwit complexity, the firm brings together approximately 18,000 professionals to achieve lasting impact and shape a meaningful future.
